Safi, 14 December 2025: the rain, the terrain and the wadi
A flow simulation driven by the rain measured that day: the water running down the Chaâba wadi catchment into the city, frame by frame, with a probe to read any place.
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GeoInsights
Safi, 14 December 2025: the rain, the terrain and the wadi
On Sunday 14 December 2025, a thunderstorm hits Safi. In the evening, the Chaâba wadi overflows into the medina: 37 people die. This page replays what the rain measured that day does when it runs over the terrain. It is a simulated scenario, not footage of the event.
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19 mm in one hour
The Safi station recorded 35 mm between 1 pm and 7 pm, 19 mm of it in a single hour, from 4 to 5 pm, under the storm. The head of the region spoke of more than 60 mm in three hours over the medina: a station sees only one point of a storm. The map tries both.
Source : Station synoptique de Safi (OMM 60185), messages SYNOP archivés par Ogimet ; Direction générale de la météorologie (Le360) (14 décembre 2025)
▸ See the data
| 13 h | 3,3 |
|---|---|
| 14 h | 3,3 |
| 15 h | 3,3 |
| 16 h | 19 |
| 17 h | 3 |
| 18 h | 3 |
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A catchment of about 570 km²
Rain falling on the Abda plateau, up to 35 km inland, drains to a single outlet: the mouth of the Chaâba wadi, below the medina. The terrain outlines a catchment of about 570 km². With the station's rain, the model sends almost nothing down: at most 5 m³/s at the city entrance. The plateau keeps its water.
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If the storm was as described
Now let the storm described over the medina fall: 60 mm in three hours, from 4 to 7 pm, over the whole catchment. The water gathers in the gullies, then in the wadi. It reaches the edge of Safi around 18:40, three hours after the peak rain, and the wadi carries 103 m³/s there at 23:00, still rising.
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The wadi runs through the city
Up close, the same simulation. The wadi runs down its ravine to the medina and the sea, below Ksar el Bahr. The arrows follow the current; their length shows its speed, more than 3 m/s in the ravine. The model cannot see the medina's lanes: it shows where the water goes, not every street it filled.
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Click on the water
Click a blue spot on the map: the probe gives the water depth at the time shown, the speed of the current, the peak and when it came, and the curve for the whole evening. The playback bar moves time forward or back.
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What the model cannot see
The finest open terrain model covers Morocco at 30 m: the medina's lanes, 3 to 5 m wide, the wadi canal and the sewers are not in it. A single station measures the rain, and no discharge measurement has been published to calibrate the model. The probe's figures are the scenario's, not those of the night of 14 December.
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Explore the simulation
The map is yours: play the evening, click the water, turn around the neighbourhoods.
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Sources and method
Everything this story states comes from here: the data tables, the references cited and the catalogue datasets, with their licence and date.
Data
Period : 14 décembre 2025
Three-hour totals from the SYNOP reports (10 mm from 12:00 to 15:00 UTC, 25 mm from 15:00 to 18:00); the national weather service gives 19 mm between 15:00 and 16:00 UTC. The rest of each period is spread evenly. Safi time (UTC + 1).
Kharita, d'après le relief GEDTM30 v1.2 (OpenGeoHub, CC BY 4.0)
Licence : CC BY 4.0
Catchment of the Chaâba wadi mouth, traced by D8 flow routing on the 30 m terrain. On such a flat plateau, the outline is uncertain.
Contributeurs OpenStreetMap, via Overture Maps (thème buildings, release 2026-09-23.1)
Licence : ODbL 1.0Updated : 2026-10-09
Emprises de la basse vallée de l'oued Chaâba et de la ville ; la médina y est peu cartographiée. Hauteur : deux niveaux (7 m) par défaut, 11 m au-delà de 1 500 m² ; OSM ne donne presque jamais la hauteur ici.
References
- Messages SYNOP de la station de Safi (OMM 60185), 14 et 15 décembre 2025 — archive Ogimet · 2026-10-09
- Le360, « Inondations à Safi et dans d'autres régions du Maroc : les explications de la Météorologie nationale », 15 décembre 2025 (pluie, bilan de 37 morts et 14 blessés) · 2026-10-09
- Maroc Hebdo, entretien avec Samir Goudar, président du conseil de la région Marrakech-Safi, 19 décembre 2025 · 2026-10-09
- Ho, Y. et Hengl, T., GEDTM30 : modèle numérique de terrain global à 30 m, v1.2, OpenGeoHub, CC BY 4.0 · 2026-10-09
- ESA WorldCover 2021 v200, occupation du sol à 10 m, CC BY 4.0 · 2026-10-09
- Bates, Horritt et Fewtrell (2010), « A simple inertial formulation of the shallow water equations », Journal of Hydrology 387 — le schéma de LISFLOOD-FP · 2026-10-09
- Bâtiments © contributeurs OpenStreetMap (ODbL), via Overture Maps · 2026-10-09
Layers prepared for this story
Not in the catalogue: these data were prepared for the story and are not downloadable. The original source is authoritative.
Safi : bâtiments cartographiés dans OpenStreetMap
Contributeurs OpenStreetMap, via Overture Maps (thème buildings, release 2026-09-23.1) · Licence : ODbL 1.0
Emprises de la basse vallée de l'oued Chaâba et de la ville ; la médina y est peu cartographiée. Hauteur : deux niveaux (7 m) par défaut, 11 m au-delà de 1 500 m² ; OSM ne donne presque jamais la hauteur ici.
Methodology
Simulated scenario, not calibrated against discharge measurements. GEDTM30 v1.2 terrain at 30 m (OpenGeoHub, CC BY 4.0), D8 channels carved 0.3 to 3 m deep; ESA WorldCover 2021 land cover (Manning, SCS curve number, soil group C); rain from the Safi station (SYNOP 60185) spread hour by hour over the whole domain; 2D flow with the local inertial formulation of Bates et al. (2010), 30 m cells, closed mass balance. Open code: pipeline/inondation/.
Boundaries: Natural Earth 1:50m (public domain), Morocco as a single polygon. Satellite basemap: Esri World Imagery.
